Greg Oden.
If I’m New Orleans, I’m going back and reading everything I can find about the way that tragedy unfolded. While knowing and hopefully understanding history is no guarantee you won’t repeat it, it certainly is better to have that knowledge, rather than to be ignorant of it. And for anyone paying the least bit of attention, the parallels between Greg Oden and Zion’s situation are uncomfortably familiar.
Remember Oden? The huge, athletic, smart big guy so tempting, the Blazers ignored Kevin Durant in order to draft him. Funny, like that abusive spouse you left years ago, the Blazers and their fans have tried to move on from Oden and have stuffed him down a memory hole as deep as the pit Gandalf tumbles into at the Bridge of Moria. No one talks about it, local sports media rarely mentions that fiasco…the basketball community has moved on.
I get it. It was the second time the franchise had passed on, arguably, the best player of his generation, so it could select an injury-prone big man who suffered through a career that played out in a different stratosphere. It hurts. I’m a bit more detached - as a Pistons’ fan who moved to the area and adopted the Blazers as my second team - so it’s much easier for me to see, recognize and appreciate the pure torture Blazer fans must suffer whenever they see KD sling in one of those smooth jumpers.
But I was living in Portland when that draft happened. From the outside, it appeared that the Blazers were set on drafting Oden. Period. It always seemed kind of weird because even then, the NBA was obviously moving away from the dominant center model, but Blazers’ management was seduced by and enthralled with the prospect of a generational big man, just waiting for them at the top of the draft. There were a couple of loud, contrary local voices who counseled otherwise. There were the weird reports about physical or medical concerns about Oden. The one I always remembered and believed to be amazing was that one leg was shorter than the other. I’m not a doctor and I know nothing about how something of that sort might impact a professional basketball player, but it did seem like a really big deal. It just seemed as though that kind of issue would invariably impact the course of a players health.
But, fans were told: nothing to see here. No biggie. We know about it, understand how it might impact his game, and…but, no worries.
Okay, it kind of made sense….but whenever I recall that rationalization, I also flash back to the one time I saw Oden up close and in person. It was at a local breakfast place and when I entered, before being seated, I saw him at a booth with a friend. He was facing me, seated, his arms slung over the back of the booth, on a bench seat that was designed for at least two and maybe three people,. He seemed to take up that entire side of the booth. He was the largest human being I’d ever seen up close. He was broad, thick and seemed to revel in letting everyone see how freaking huge he was. Years ago, I did sports reporting for my college newspaper and covered NCAA and NBA games. I was up-close and personal with lots of players and before I ran into Oden that day, the largest player I ever saw was Bob Lanier. Oden seemed to dwarf Lanier.
So when I think of Oden, I think of that image of this huge man, with one leg shorter than the other, with a history of injuries - even if they’d been fairly minor to that point, and then I think of the problems he had with his knees…And then I just shake my head.
How could anyone who was not being fatally Pollyannish, not see where Oden was heading? Such a huge structure balanced on such a shaky base…If one took an unflinching, unemotional, calculating examination of everything related to Oden and his legs and knees, it should have been obvious that things were not going to turn out well. At some point, before his knee literally blew up on the court, Blazer management needed to take a cold, hard look at Oden and should have traded him for whatever they could have obtained.
Which brings me back to Zion.
Observing the situation as an outsider with absolutely no inside information or knowledge outside of what is known by the public, generally, the most likely outcome for Zion is frighteningly clear. Things are not going to turn out well.
What has NBA history told us about these situations? On one side of the ledger, the ones that come to memory, immediately are Sam Bowie, Mel “Dinner Bell” Turpin, Oliver Miller, Robert “Tractor” Traylor. Oden. I’m sure there are many, many more. On the other side - guys with obvious weight and/or chronic injury issues who pull out of that spiral - the only person who comes to mind is Charles Barkley. Old Chuck was accurately tagged the Round Mound of Rebound, but somewhere, somehow, he was smart enough to see the inevitable, tragic ending if he didn’t get his body in shape and drag himself out of that negative spiral down. At least during his playing career, Chuck got himself into decent shape, remained so, and enjoyed his remarkable career. If there are other examples of guys with similar issues, who pulled themselves out of that trend, please let me know, but no one else comes to mind.
If I’m New Orleans management, I’m looking to somehow extricate myself from this mess as cleanly as possible. Right now, they are like a truck driver crossing a mountain pass with burnt-out brakes and a trailer full of nitro. The only rational way out of their hellish quandary is to trade Zion as quickly as possible.
There is still a market for Zion. Now, at least. He’s obviously an uber-talented player…a player so good, if everything does turn out well, he’s a franchise’s cornerstone player, the kind of player a franchise may be lucky enough to draft once in a couple of decades. That is why it would be so painful for New Orleans to move him, and it would explain what is still likely a strong market - at least now - for obtaining him in a trade. There is uncertainty, fuzziness around what will eventually come of Zion, so there are teams out there who will be more than willing to gamble on that talent, while downplaying the risks.
Plenty of GMs are dreaming about Zion. They see him in their uniform, his body healed, his massive frame toned and ripped, leading their team into the NBA finals… Point Zion. It’s a deliciously tantalizing fantasy. Vivid, evocative images of that sort fuel their work, as a matter of necessity. Can you imagine the dreams Steve Kerr and his GM had while they were courting Durant? The incredibly powerful images that actually came to life once KD took the court with Curry and Thompson and Draymond? NBA GMs have to imagine those images before they can become reality. They have to visualize how players will fit and synch and mesh on court.
As a Pistons’ fan, I’ll always remember Orlando stealing Grant Hill and the photos of Hill traveling to Orlando to sign his new contract, with his new team while still on crutches. That initial ankle injury was the first in a long, cascading series of injuries that derailed Hill’s career, but the reaction of the league showed the willingness of teams to gamble on talent. No one had any idea how bad Hill’s injury was, but lots of teams bid for Hill, because of his talent, regardless. Those GMs weren’t really looking at those photos of Hill on crutches. They, like Orlando’s GM, were dreaming of how Hill would look working his crossover dribble magic in their uniform. Their mind’s eye was focused on a Grant Hill, fully healed, triple-doubling through a full season. Orlando was fantasizing about Tracy McGrady and Hill dominating games, as twin 6’8” jumbo wings that the rest of the league would need to chase.
Would major market teams like New York, or Brooklyn or the Lakers or the Clippers or even Dallas, be willing to gamble that Zion will pull his stuff together, get healthy and start getting his body in shape so he could have a long productive career? You bet they would. My strong suspicion is that several teams - and probably more - would ante up a sizable offer, if they haven’t done so already. It’s much easier to indulge the pleasant fantasy, rather than to analyze and decode the potential nightmare. The nightmare scenario can be shoved into a dark corner of the mind, recounted briefly and hurriedly, if some idiot brings it up. Besides, if that nightmare actually becomes a living, breathing monster, it’s likely that GM will be long gone - fired - before the truly negative impacts roll down the hill and become fully realized. If it works, he’ll enjoy the benefits. If it doesn’t work, well, he’ll take his severance and move onto the next gig. Almost all of the incentives move those GM’s to gamble on a prize like Zion.
But accepting one of those offers would hurt…it would be painful…it would probably set the franchise on a tumultuous path for a season or two, at least.
But the other factors involved are even scarier for the Pelicans. The history of similar players dealing with similar circumstances? Not pretty. The open friction between the Pelicans and Zion’s “camp” that could easily devolve into open warfare and a trade demand that could come at any time. There is the delicacy of dealing with the potentially brutal question of Zion’s max rookie contract extension, which, if signed, could ruin the franchise for years if he is not able to be a valuable and contributing member during its term.
If I’m New Orleans, I do my due diligence, I do my research, I read all about Greg Oden and Grant Hill, et al, but the choice becomes as clear as a spring day in Wisconsin the day after a tornado has ripped through the area.
I have to trade him and trade him as quickly as I can, while lots of NBA muckety-mucks are still enthralled with their dreams and his potential and are willing to blind themselves to and ignore their nightmares. If I’m New Orleans, I let him become someone else’s problem. I’ll let another fan base have their Greg Oden to forget, as best it can. Let someone else be consumed by dreams of Zion.